时 间：6月19日（周五）上午10：00
地 点：行政楼1002会议室
主讲人：范明 副教授 美国华盛顿大学福斯特商学院
主持人：刘渊 教授 体育外围平台APP
题 目：Information Accuracy and Consistency in Prediction Markets
摘 要：Prediction markets have become popular in the last decade because of the accurate probability estimates they generate for uncertain future events. Experimental psychology has repeatedly demonstrated that individuals make erroneous judgments when they are asked to estimate probabilities of simple events as well as conjunctions of events. We investigate whether such errors in probability 。judgments are eliminated by the use of prediction markets. We find that prices in those prediction markets are also occasionally prone to such fallacies and hence the prices from prediction markets cannot always be interpreted as accurate and noiseless representations of the probabilities of the underlying events.
主讲人简介：Ming Fan is an associate professor in information systems at Foster School of Business, University of Washington. He received his B.S. from Nanjing University, China and Ph.D. degree in information systems management from the business school in University of Texas at Austin. He is an associate editor of Information Systems Research, Decision Sciences Journal, andDecision Support Systems.
His research interests are in the area of electronic commerce, outsourcing and contract theory, and reputation systems in online markets.
At University of Washington, he teaches various graduate, undergraduate, and Ph.D. courses. Before joining University of Washington, he was a faculty at Mendoza College of Business, University of Notre Dame. He has also conducted executive trainings on IT strategies for senior managers in manufacturing and high-tech industries.
欢迎广大师生积极参加！
管理科学与工程学系
